An idea from 3 professors
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical, and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
Great Barrington, Massachusetts, 4th October 2020
To sign the declaration, follow this link (will be live later today):
www.GBdeclaration.org
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
Great Barrington, Massachusetts, 4th October 2020
To sign the declaration, follow this link (will be live later today):
www.GBdeclaration.org
Why the contribution is important
It is not strictly speaking my idea. My idea is that it should be adopted in Scotland. Now.
These are professors at the very top of their field - virology and epidemiology.
These are professors at the very top of their field - virology and epidemiology.
by alanmacrae41 on October 05, 2020 at 06:28PM
Posted by GSS October 05, 2020 at 18:41
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Posted by MG64 October 05, 2020 at 19:30
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Posted by RTD October 05, 2020 at 20:41
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Posted by jakkyb7 October 05, 2020 at 21:20
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Posted by DawnC1234 October 05, 2020 at 22:58
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Posted by drkatiebrooks October 06, 2020 at 00:21
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Posted by Angelac October 06, 2020 at 07:08
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Posted by mstirner October 06, 2020 at 07:36
The virus isn’t going to go away, and there’s no sense in the fit and healthy being sequestered when they could be contributing to the health and safety of the vulnerable
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Posted by mac1991 October 06, 2020 at 07:45
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Posted by RobynG October 06, 2020 at 14:17
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Posted by PoppyG October 06, 2020 at 22:16
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Posted by TJT October 07, 2020 at 10:09
"As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection."
basically:
let the healthy people move freely
protect the vulnerable
look at ALL public health - so that mental health, suicides and cancer are not being ignored and not just one illness!
The Great Barrington Declaration (as above)
This looks at public health as a whole and is based on scientific knowledge from people that really know what they are talking about. "herd immunity is not a strategy, it is a biological fact"
by TJT on October 07, 2020 at 08:38AM
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Posted by SchoolTeacher October 11, 2020 at 14:23
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Posted by Smithsky October 11, 2020 at 15:59
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Posted by radiofan October 11, 2020 at 21:17
It might surprise you know that my wife and I are not young, so we are potentially at risk from this virus. However, we are lucky to be retired and we have learned to live with the situation by keeping our heads down. So, regardless of what restrictions are proposed, they are not really affecting us, because we are bunkered down. Yes, we miss the grandkids, but Zoom will have to do for now.
I am swayed by what I've seen in some other countries, notably Sweden. I accept that it's really difficult to compare two societies but my view is that the Scottish Government should put all it's efforts into protecting those that really are vulnerable, and free up the less vulnerable do as they please. Re-open all businesses, open call centres - by now the public knows how deadly this virus is and I believe that individuals should be left to assess their own risks.
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Posted by Nm October 11, 2020 at 21:29
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