Reconsideration of the significance of a "positive test" and testing in general
To rethink what a "positive test" means and to rethink using the PCR testing to guide us in this pandemic.
Many experts are critical of the use of the test (Prof Carl Heneghan of Oxford for one)
Many experts are critical of the use of the test (Prof Carl Heneghan of Oxford for one)
Why the contribution is important
The PCR test is not suitable for what it is being used for. This is because of the following reasons.
1. It cannot tell if someone has active infection.
2. It can pick up debris from historical infection, months ago.
3. It is not 100% specific and therefore could be picking up common or garden coronavirus (which are abundant). It could even be picking up human RNA from the body.
4. It has a false positive rate of somewhere between 0.8% and 4.3%. Applying this to hundreds of thousands of tests will yield tens of thousands of false positives (likely explaining many "cases" in which people have no symptoms.
The expense of mass PCR testing is enormous. The burden it is putting on the health service is vast. The results of tests are highly questionable. The numbers published in the media are fuelling the fear of this virus.
Of note, influenza deaths have been higher than COVID19 deaths since June. Yet we are not testing people in the same way, tracing their contacts or imposing isolation measures on them. Yet, COVID19 and Influenza are extremely similar in their lethality and transmission.
1. It cannot tell if someone has active infection.
2. It can pick up debris from historical infection, months ago.
3. It is not 100% specific and therefore could be picking up common or garden coronavirus (which are abundant). It could even be picking up human RNA from the body.
4. It has a false positive rate of somewhere between 0.8% and 4.3%. Applying this to hundreds of thousands of tests will yield tens of thousands of false positives (likely explaining many "cases" in which people have no symptoms.
The expense of mass PCR testing is enormous. The burden it is putting on the health service is vast. The results of tests are highly questionable. The numbers published in the media are fuelling the fear of this virus.
Of note, influenza deaths have been higher than COVID19 deaths since June. Yet we are not testing people in the same way, tracing their contacts or imposing isolation measures on them. Yet, COVID19 and Influenza are extremely similar in their lethality and transmission.
by doc40hz on October 06, 2020 at 12:53PM
Posted by kjarva October 06, 2020 at 14:59
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