Age phased return to work


If you are following the science and looking at the way Coronavirus affects different age groups e.g. Over 55 risk of severe symptoms is approx 90% and also risk factors of Diabetes ,High blood pressure especially if over 55.Why is it not then a common sense simple decision to keep lockdown and furlough in place for this group.

Why the contribution is important

This would serve the purpose of ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed and lower chances of severe symptoms and possible death in this group .

by MZ57 on May 05, 2020 at 01:39PM

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Average rating: 4.0
Based on: 8 votes

Comments

  • Posted by AdamWilson May 05, 2020 at 20:31

    Completely agree.

  • Posted by Ooshie May 05, 2020 at 21:14

    I would prefer mandatory working from home where possible, but in the absence of that this would be a helpful ides

  • Posted by MargaretR19 May 06, 2020 at 08:42

    Mandatory home working for now

  • Posted by Cd123 May 06, 2020 at 15:28

    With mathematical modelling it should be possible to match the number of hospital /ITU beds available to the predicted numbers of people potentially requiring them for a given age group if that age group were 'free' to contract the virus.
    Given that the hospitalisation/mortality rate starts to rise steeply in the older (>60 yrs) age groups then an age related lifting of lockdown might be possible.
    For example, if the model predicted that there would be enough capacity to care for all those requiring it if all the <40 yrs olds were infected, then that group of people could be permitted to go back to school, work and social activities. This would have to be 'permitted' not 'mandated' and would only apply to those with no co-morbidities and having no regular contact, eg sharing a household, with someone at risk (older or with co-morbidity). This would allow a proportion of the population to catch the virus and recover. If done in conjunction with the TTIS policy then any contacts of infected individuals could be traced and isolated, particularly important for any inadvertent contact with at-risk persons.
    In conjunction with antibody testing of the otherwise healthy upwards from age 45yrs, those who had already been infected and recovered could be identified and be free to also return to work, along the same guidance. Thus a herd immunity would be built from the youngest upwards.
    Those at most risk - older and those with co-morbidities - should stay in lockdown for as long as possible until an effective vaccine is available, but if for some reason that is not possible, then with some herd immunity, their chance of actually catching the virus would be less.
    This all depends of course that catching and recovering from the virus confers protective immunity.

  • Posted by JohnM543 May 07, 2020 at 17:02

    ONS data shows mortality in the under 45s is low, if co-morbidity factors are considered then for younger fit individuals the risk is relatively low. This risk is in all likelihood counterbalanced by the negative societal outcomes that will come from a very deep recession. It is well understood that life expectancy for socially deprived groups is much lower.

    Starting a phased return to work of fit & healthy individuals will start our economy moving. A review of the statistics should indicate groups that should be sheltered, including those with high BMIs & other underlying health conditions.
    This approach to returning to work should be in combination with other measures ensuring appropriate social distancing. Working from home where possible should be allowed by employers.

  • Posted by WBRnotes May 08, 2020 at 21:43

    The paper below looks at a rolling age release from lockdown and pays attention to the WHO advice re the risk to certain age groups, notably those 60+ which UK governments haven't so far done - likely because those 60-66 are now very much part of the workforce. Indeed, in many cases, those who have retired have returned to help the country at this time despite the danger they have put themselves in. Some have given their lives in doing this.

    This age group should be protected as we come out of lockdown though strict shielding at this point would be a step too far.

    Age, Death Risk, and the Design of an Exit Strategy: A Guide for
    Policymakers and for Citizens Who Want to Stay Alive - published by Warwick University.

  • Posted by JoanofArc May 10, 2020 at 12:54

    Agree that younger people could return to work first but would need to consider if exemptions required for those living with vulnerable children or adults.
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