Be Transparent

Scottish government should publish the model (and results) being used to calculate the R number and allow independent statisticians and virologists to confirm if it is reasonably accurate - or if it is flawed .

The first minister stated that she thought the R number for Scotland was higher and possibly 0.9, she stated this was one of the reasons to continue the lockdown. As the government doesn’t know how many people have Covid 19 then it is impossible to calculate the R number with reasonable accuracy.

It is possible to estimate it, but as the scientific advisors are giving the governments a range eg 0.6 to 0.9. Then it’s highly unlikely that the actual transmission rate will be at either end of the scale. The advisors will also be giving a probability value for each value in the range and its more likely that the actual transmission rate is closer to the middle of the range (0.75) than either 0.6 or 0.9.

Politicians are expressing their own views and bias , but using flawed science

Why the contribution is important

Because the Scottish government is asking (forcing) us to continue with the lockdown based on evidence they won’t make public

by Don on May 11, 2020 at 02:42PM

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Average rating: 4.7
Based on: 7 votes


  • Posted by ArchieM May 11, 2020 at 17:06

    Fully agree with this proposal.
    Sadly however it’s not going to happen because she doesn’t know what the number is. She won’t tell us which sector is badly affected and which is not.

    Will we ever know who is being tested on a daily basis and why our capacity for testing is not being fully utilised?
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