Evidence Within Government Papers

I have read the paper published today (May 5). Thank you for publishing the decision making process. I have a few points:

In general there is no explanation of the methodology and data behind your various charts. Please do explain these to help the public understand these issues better.

On page 12 your graphic suggests that an R value of 0.8 could result in the NHS being overwhelmed. An R value of less than 1 means that numbers of cases will fall, so what you suggest seems impossible. Can you explain or revisit this analysis please.

On page 13 you have a scary looking graph implying that the NHS could be overwhelmed 'based on recent international experience'. Could you explain what that is? Numerous European countries are opening schools, Sweden never closed them and yet I am not aware of any of those countries having an overwhelmed healthcare system.

Any assistance you could give would help more of society understand things more clearly, which can only be a good thing. Thank you for taking the time to read this.

Why the contribution is important

Explanation of the decision making process is vital if society is to understand why government has made its decisions. It is good to see these materials published. It is difficult to get things completely right first time so I do not criticise the authors of the paper for the issues that I raise. Now can you respond to people asking for clarity on certain points within your papers? If you can achieve that then you will have really set up a transparent decision making process.

by williambowers on May 05, 2020 at 03:40PM

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Comments

  • Posted by lindyloo May 05, 2020 at 16:14

    Totally agree. We need actual facts and figures not guess work. I am fed up of hearing " we believe " or "we think" . We also need to look at scientific advice from other countries. Scientists in switzerland have even said children can hug grandparents as they pose no risk to passing anything on. We need to look at the Swedish model, realise we have made a mistake and get this country opened up.

  • Posted by BofA1 May 05, 2020 at 19:41

    Agree with both posts. The graph showing 35,000 hospital admissions within a month of opening schools as a “worse case” is risible. It is entirely inconsistent with the Swedish experience, and that of the other countries who have already reopened schools. In fact, nearly every small country in Continental Europe has either opened their schools or has announced a date in the coming weeks to do so.

    The Scottish Government need to explain why they put this forward.
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