Green Zones

This is an idea I came across during my reading on the subject. It comes from some mathematical modelers at the Université Paris Dauphine and the University of Oxford. Their paper is here:
https://www.esade.edu/itemsweb/wi/research/ecpol/EsadeEcPol_Insigth6_Exit_Strategy.pdf
A laypersons' summary is here: https://theconversation.com/green-zones-a-mathematical-proposal-for-how-to-exit-from-the-covid-19-lockdown-136002

These authors discuss a means of exiting the lockdown safely while returning to some semblance of normality. They propose dividing the entire world into zones of varying current exposure to the virus (our part of this would involve only Scotland, and I see no obvious reason we shouldn't use this here even if our neighbours do not fully engage with the process).

In the initial stage we would ramp up our test-trace-isolate strategy, which I think is a good one, while driving the R0 as low as possible as we are doing. It will take time to plan and implement a Green Zone strategy in any case. Then we divide Scotland into its natural communities, of a few thousand people. Only essential workers, regularly tested (if a fast test can be developed they could be tested at the border of each community), would be allowed in or out. Once it's clear that a zone is free of virus it can then be joined to contiguous ones in order to create larger regional Green Zones until the whole of Scotland is free of the virus.

If there is another local outbreak that locality can then be temporarily isolated, probably with stricter lockdown measures, until the virus is again extirpated. Our public health system will then be fighting isolated brushfires, not a widespread conflagration.

Obviously Westminster will never allow us to close the border. We could presumably close off the Borders and Dumfries and Galloway to anyone not demonstrably from a Green Zone south of the Border.

While I think there are issues with mathematical modeling the authors of this paper suggest that the world could be free of virus in two to four months. I suspect this is impractical at a global level, but it doesn't seem unreasonable that we could extirpate the virus in Scotland in that time frame.

This would enable Scotland to exit lockdown, and probably extirpate the virus from Scotland, by the autumn while minimsing transmission in the process. If implemented properly it should minimise the number of Scots who are ever infected with the virus and save lives.