Herd immunity or elimination of the virus.

Regardless of all the ideas presented we first need to know an overall strategy or a road map. Are we aiming in the short term to merely contain the virus or more ambitiously can we manage to effectively eliminate the virus? We need to make it clear which pathway is going to reduce the most deaths And impact the economy the least. The best plan will achieve both. (It has been assumed that we have had to trade one of against the other). Had we been allowed to quarantine all international travellers when it was clear to do so then we would have few deaths and a minimum of lockdown. It was trying to save the travel industries and Fear of damaging the economy that LEAD to the damage of the economy and many unnecessary deaths. At the present time we have a choice. 1. We ease lockdown to reduce the immediate damage to the economy at a level that The NHS can cope with. This is in the hope that a vaccine will eventually be successfully made and implemented. Herd Immunity can then be achieved. 2. We aim to eliminate the virus by getting the infection rate to single figures. Then test, trace and isolate. It is now that lockdown can be eased. However travel between regions and countries would need to be kept to a minimum and involve quarintine until other countries achieved in eliminating the virus.

Why the contribution is important

1. There will be other pressures to ease the lockdown for example for the health and well-being of both adults and children. When any proposal is made we need to evaluate it on the basis of our road map. 2. We may find that an effective vaccine cannot be achieved or the virus evolves faster than we can manage. If we do not aim for elimination now we may have to in the future. We will have made the same mistake again causing more deaths and more and longer damage to the economy by failing to act decisively.

by Pattimer on May 10, 2020 at 03:48PM

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  • Posted by JLMBD May 10, 2020 at 16:03

    Herd immunity is an unreliable strategy in scientific terms. There is currently no scientific proof that every patient develops antibodies. There is no data on how long immunity will last in those who do develop it. It could be just a matter of a few weeks. They are trying to develop a vaccine that would provide longer immunity, in the manner of other coronaviruses that would probably be a year at most because they mutate relatively quickly unlike the viruses that cause things like measles and chickenpox.
  • Posted by MikeJohnston May 10, 2020 at 16:29

    Please see my idea: What is the acceptable level of death?
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