Make decisions based on evidence
The lockdown was used as a blunt instrument approach to tackling the problem in the absence of data.
There is now plenty of data with which to make informed decisions. We have a recent study at St Andrews University suggesting the majority of transmission is from close and prolonged contact with people and in enclosed spaces. I've found multiple sources from around the world that would seem to back this up.
We know from looking at Sweden that it's possible to flatten the curve without the need for such a strict lockdown. However we are in a worse position than Sweden as it's likely they have some level of immunity (although not proven) whereas people in lockdown will have none. Can we afford to wait as long as it takes to get to virtually zero transmission?
We know from New York that the majority of their new cases are people sitting in their own homes.
We know from multiple sources of testing around the world that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) is around 0.5% or less and not the assumed 2-3% people have been assuming.
We know that the majority of cases are people in the 70+ range and with comorbidity.
We know that care home deaths make up as much as 50% or more of total deaths in countries with or without lockdown.
There is now plenty of data with which to make informed decisions. We have a recent study at St Andrews University suggesting the majority of transmission is from close and prolonged contact with people and in enclosed spaces. I've found multiple sources from around the world that would seem to back this up.
We know from looking at Sweden that it's possible to flatten the curve without the need for such a strict lockdown. However we are in a worse position than Sweden as it's likely they have some level of immunity (although not proven) whereas people in lockdown will have none. Can we afford to wait as long as it takes to get to virtually zero transmission?
We know from New York that the majority of their new cases are people sitting in their own homes.
We know from multiple sources of testing around the world that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) is around 0.5% or less and not the assumed 2-3% people have been assuming.
We know that the majority of cases are people in the 70+ range and with comorbidity.
We know that care home deaths make up as much as 50% or more of total deaths in countries with or without lockdown.
Why the contribution is important
We know so much more than we did when we implemented the lockdowns so it's time to start basing decisions on the evidence instead of using the bluntest tool we could find.
If we knew what we know now would we have implemented the same lockdown restrictions? If not then it would be possible to implement a different approach now.
There is one caveat and that is the case of being in a worse position than Sweden. If we assume some sort of immunity is possible then the R rate in Sweden will naturally be falling as more people become immune. This means that we cannot ease off too quickly because our R rate will increase more quickly than if we had more immunity. If there is no immunity then it would be hard to explain why Sweden's R rate has fallen and why they do not have a much higher excess death count.
If we knew what we know now would we have implemented the same lockdown restrictions? If not then it would be possible to implement a different approach now.
There is one caveat and that is the case of being in a worse position than Sweden. If we assume some sort of immunity is possible then the R rate in Sweden will naturally be falling as more people become immune. This means that we cannot ease off too quickly because our R rate will increase more quickly than if we had more immunity. If there is no immunity then it would be hard to explain why Sweden's R rate has fallen and why they do not have a much higher excess death count.
by PiedFifer on May 09, 2020 at 11:30AM
Posted by GrantMcLaren May 09, 2020 at 11:57
Virologists in countries managing the situation well are learning that is is not as infectious as we thought. Low R ratings often less than seasonal flu, The virus does not transmit well outdoors and the fact that the vast majority have either no or mild symptoms all make a lockdown appear extremely OTT.
I'm Germany they have discovered there is only a 15% chance of catching it from a family member at home. It appears a knee jerk reaction to the initial data which was partial guesswork.
How can a grandparent possibly transmit a virus taking a car trip to wave at their grandkids through a window. A lot of the lockdown does not make sense!
We can't trust the WHO either. It's time to respond to new accurate data!
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Posted by POR May 09, 2020 at 12:06
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