R number is nonsense
Reducing the R number to below 1 for the general population is nonsense.
Preventing transmission of C19 to those at risk of serious symptoms or death is really the only thing that matters.
All the evidence indicates that the vast majority of people who are at serious risk have:
Significant pre-existing health conditions
Old age
Obesity
It’s no surprise the huge numbers of people dying in care homes given that’s where so many of our old and frail people are. The government’s efforts should be focused on shielding the old and vulnerable.
For the rest of the population however the risk from C19 is relatively small. How often do you read about people being asymptomatic, or having very mild symptoms. One of the investigations (by CDC) into the outbreak on the Diamond Princess showed that 46% of the people testing positive for C19 were aysmptomatic.
The UK has 175,000 active cases of C19, however only 1,551 or less than 1% are classified as serious or critical.
The number of people who have actually had C19 is much greater than the official number because of the very limited testing in the UK , until recently. Unless you know how many people are catching a disease then it is impossible to properly calculate a transmission rate. The best you can do is to estimate it from new cases or back-calculate from deaths. But considering our deaths are largely limited to the old and frail and testing is limited to hospital admissions, NHS staff and now other key-workers (and is a moving number ) then the R numbers being spouted by Nicola and Boris are guesstimates at the best. At the worst they are misinformation designed to keep us compliant and in the fear that the continuous media barrage has induced.
To conclude
The NHS has not been overwhelmed, although it is stressed
Most people have relatively mild symptoms or no symptoms
The R number is a very inaccurate calculation
Most deaths are in the elderly and frail - did the governments and their advisors not realise that people in care homes are generally elderly and frail?
If you have not already had C19 then you are going to be exposed to it when the lockdown finally ends because nothing will have really changed
The world has 2 pandemics occurring simultaneously - Covid 19 and Fear
The lockdown needs to end because it’s targeting everyone, whereas the risk (Of death) for most of the population is low
My apologies to anyone who has lost a friend or family i
Why the contribution is important
Because the Governments lockdown strategy is wrong
by Don on May 08, 2020 at 10:55AM
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