Timing and planning

There are a number of things mentioned in other threads concerning unlinked activities and services, from golf to schooling. The lockdown affects them all. At the moment there is no visibility of what happens when. In Germany they have published a plan detailing restrictions to be lifted when certain stages in the epidemic are reached. For instance when the rate of infective growth is below a threshold schools can open. It would be helpful for both work, and life in general, if a clear plan were to be published so we the public know our adherence to social distancing rules is not being judged arbitrarily, as it seems at the moment. The plan should cover the conditions for an action, including: a numerical analysis of any thresholds (e.g. the estimated prevalence of the disease in the population plus the blessed R factor and the expected uncertainty in those measures is below a give value), the models underlying those thresholds can be keep to a more academic level for scrutiny; a statement saying what categories of activity are allowed; and a statement of the conditions under which that action will be reversed. An example the condition may be 'if (R+uncertainty) is least than 0.5,' the response might be 'open schools for S4-6 in 2 weeks time, open golf courses and ice cream parlours now' and the withdrawal condition would be 'if R greater than 0.7.' R is used in this example as it seems to be the governments go-to number and for no other reason. Do not be tempted to omit numbers from this as that is part of the problem here.

Why the contribution is important

Spelling out a plan with numbers would both keep us the public going with the social distancing measures by giving us a reason to comply and show us both how that light at the end of the tunnel will grow and how far the end of the tunnel may be from here. Without a set of clear conditions (i.e. numerical in this case) for action laid down in a plan all decisions are arbitrary. Arbitrary is okay when the decision is popular, but not when it isn't. Also such a plan can be discussed as a whole and shown to be fairer than what appears to be a string of unlinked measures. We currently have no idea of what needs to happen for us to be allowed to start traveling to work rather than working from home where possible. We have no idea of when the schools may go back. And most importantly we have no way of measuring our progress towards these points. Without know what can happen we will become more despondent and more likely to stretch or break the social distancing rules that are there for a reason.

by OldRockJock on May 07, 2020 at 04:18PM

Current Rating

Average rating: 0.0
Based on: 0 votes