Transparent comparison on the wider aspects of the Lockdown vs the Virus

Scottish government to openly publish, compare and contrast all known mortality, health and wellbeing related statistics and modeling in regards to Covid-19, lockdown (and its wider socioeconomic effects) and how it factors into past, current and future decision making.

It appears from both the UK and Scottish Government Daily Coronavirus update that most of the discussion is centered around the following key measures:

- Daily Death's
- Infection/Reproduction Rate (R)
- Number of persons infected
- Number of tests
- Comparison to other countries
- % of Deaths occurring in each setting (Hospital, Care Home, Home etc)

These are also the key measures that the media are relaying as the “Headlines” to us (the public) which are narrow in scope and give little insight into the wider socioeconomic impacts both at present and as modelled in the future.

Whilst we must do all we can to preserve life from being taken by the virus, we must also be mindful to ensure that our actions are not shortsighted and do not cause greater mortality in the long term as symptoms of actions taken to reduce the spread of the virus.

On the contrary in regards to publishing and discussing the rationale behind the current social distancing measures and any future changes, I hope that being open and honest about the rationale behind them (individually) will hopefully increase compliance where required. Whilst many of the restrictions are self explanatory there are a few that for many of us seem overly excessive and questionable to most people's common sense - for example limiting the frequency and duration of exercise.

To allow the people of Scotland to form fair and fully informed opinions on the potential easing of lockdown the government should provide official modelling and statistics on the below:

+++ Health, Wellbeing and Mortality (non-exhaustive): +++

1.) The number of Covid-19 related suicides or any increase to suicide rates and a projection on how this number will trend throughout lockdown and social distancing (where the believed lockdown directly or indirectly was an attributing factor in the cause of taking ones own life)

2.) The current number and projected number of deaths by other diseases (such as cancer etc) where patients up until now have been unable to receive treatment or will continue to not be able to receive treatment, or whereby the delaying or postponement of treatment has resulted in reduction of lifespan or mortality.

3.) The number of patients:
a.) currently awaiting treatment for major treatments (operations etc) that have been postponed and the impact this will have on future NHS
capacity and patient quality of life.
b.) that have died due to unavailability of treatment (operations etc) or are predicted to die due to the unavailability of treatment.
c.) current and predicted number of persons who died due to failing to seek treatment due to fear or anxiety about the virus or overwhelming the

4.) The current number and projected number of domestic abuse related violence incidents and any associated modelled mortality throughout the duration of lockdown and social distancing.

5.) The current and projected number of mental health related cases anticipated to be exacerbated or newly introduced as a result of lockdown and social distancing

6.) The current and projected rate of poverty at present and how it is anticipated to trend as lockdown continues and any therefore associated mortality.

7.) The current and projected amount of homelessness and evictions (taking into account the future ability for landlords to evict tenants which is currently on-hold)

8.) The projected mental health needs of a post lockdown population and details as to what NHS capacity is available to deal with an influx of persons suffering from social isolation, anxiety and depression.

9.) Current and projected deaths related to increased alcohol consumption during lockdown and social distancing

10.) Current and projected rate of increase in obesity as a result of restricted freedom of movement and any mortality associated with it

11.) Current and projected increase in drug related deaths due to increased drug consumption during lockdown and social distancing.

12.) Number of persons of any age whom live alone and any associated medical studies on the long term effects of social isolation and solitary confinement.

+++ Closing Questions +++

a.) Given the Scottish Covid-19 death total of 2795 (taken 3rd may) of which 75% were aged 75 years and older and given that the average life expectancy in Scotland is 77 years old. Has any modelling been done to show that in our efforts to extend the average lifespan of an elderly person by approx 2 years, we are not shortening the lifespans of the masses by the aforementioned socioeconomic impacts (sucide, mental health, poverty etc) caused by lockdown and social distancing.

b.) Given that 60% of all deaths are happening within care homes and both the infection and death rate has fallen in the community and in hospitals. Why will the Scottish Government not allow some easing of the current restrictions and make decisions on what easing can be done based on the R level in the community rather than the overall R measurement across all settings.

c.) The implementation of the Coronavirus legislation that prohibits many of our civil liberties and effectively enforces the “lockdown” has been accepted as a required measure to prevent the loss of life however some debate exists as to whether this is a breach of European Human Rights. Article 2 of European Human Rights imposes an obligation on the state to do all that can be required of it to prevent lives not simply from being lost, but also from being avoidably put at risk. As such it could be argued that the lockdown measures knowingly costs lives but also avoidably puts an unmeasured number of persons at risk from the socioeconomic impacts detailed above. Which potentially poses questions in regards to in-equality in how and what measures are implemented to “Protect the right to live” given that the harm and lives to be lost by the lockdown and social distancing measures is currently unknown.

+++ Behavioural statistics and modelling (non exhaustive) on the rationale behind the current restrictions: +++

Can the Scottish Government please publish the science and rationale behind the following social distancing measures:

1.) one piece of exercise vs multiple per day
2.) Inability to travel for exercise
3.) Inability to perform activities such as sitting on park benches, sunbathing etc whilst observing social distancing measures or with persons of the
same household
4.) Inability to partake in outdoor activities and sports which actively encourage both exercise and social distancing (such as golf, hill walking, Fishing,
Outdoor Tennis etc)

Why the contribution is important

The UK and Scottish Government continue to reassure the public that they are being “led by the science”, however much of the science is either not published or does not draw enough media attention to be reliably passed onto the public for consumption and interpretation.

If we as a nation are to be given the opportunity and expected to provide input into the framework to ease the lockdown we must be given a holistic and factual overview of the decisions made to date and both the effects of maintaining and easing the lockdown.

by rossm22 on May 08, 2020 at 04:36AM

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