The Timing of the Energy Transition from a Resource Perspective

Discussion of energy and the transition are often in terms of carbon emissions and climate change, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to a more renewable and sustainable future. But considering pollution alone is akin to looking at only one side of a coin. In order to better understand what is going on and where we are heading, we need to consider both sides. On the other side of the coin are resources. We know that Scotland has abundant renewable resources (wind, wave and tide), but that UK fossil fuel production is in decline. It is worth noting that you cannot tarmac a road or fuel a long range passenger airliner with the output of a wind turbine, but you can with the output of an oil refinery.

We need an assessment of our non-renewable resources to determine whether climate change is the limiting factor in the timing of the energy transition, resources or both.

The most pressing requirement is to assess local and global oil and gas production from a net energy perspective as it is energy (and feed stocks) from these sources in particular that fuel most of the work done both locally and globally. It is net energy i.e. the energy available after discounting production costs that powers the global industrialised world outside of the oil (and gas) production system.

We need to avoid the possibility of heading down a path that cannot deliver the results it claims due to limitations imposed by physics.

There has been considerable discussion of oil and natural gas resources, the most recent assessment of the former here [1]. However such an analysis, as the authors admit, doesn't take count of the net energy available from oil. A recent paper [2] discusses this perspective concluding 'we therefore urge a renewal of the peak oil debate in the larger context of energy transitions but including consideration of net energy'. Indeed, there is even a recent engineering assessment of the size of the resource that concludes it is vastly overstated [3].

Our own work at Zero Emission Scotland Ltd using a systems engineering approach indicates that not only does the UK faces a very grave situation due to the depletion of its' own oil and gas reserves from a net energy perspective, but that the countries we import most oil from, Norway and the USA, are either in a worse predicament or will be in a similar predicament in 10 years or so. Indeed, we see evidence that suggests that the Norwegians understand this and have taken sensible precautions. The UK does not appear to do so.

Thus, the timing of the transition is of critical importance.

[1] Jean Laherrère, Charles A. S. Hall, Roger Bentley. How much oil remains for the world to produce? Comparing assessment methods, and separating fact from fiction. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, Elsevier, 2022, 4, 100174, ISSN 2666-0490, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2022.100174

[2] Louis Delannoy, Pierre-Yves Longaretti, David Murphy, Emmanuel Prados. Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective. Applied Energy, Elsevier, 2021, 304, pp.1-17. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117843. hal-03360253

[3] James Dietrich. Too much by half: The coming cut in proved oil reserves. Independently published (8 July 2019). ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1078442312